Modelo de otimização da gestão de risco em empresas não financeiras

Abstract

This research presents an optimization model for risk management, through the development of a hedge strategy that maximizes the expected profit of a company. The model is based on the premise that a risk factor, besides affecting the results of the company, can also be correlated with future investment opportunities. The model incorporates the costs of an additional debt as well as the benefits of the availability of internal resources. The work is structured in the following way: (1) discussion of the theoretical aspects related to the theme of risk management in the context of the financial theory; (2) presentation of the methodology adopted for the development of the model; (3) derivation of the fundamental steps that guided the mathematical model, detaching the specifications of the important variables and the simulation mechanisms and (4) discussion of the main results of the hedge model, among which we highlight: increase in profit expectations, reduced uncertainty in relation to the investments, larger stability of investment and debt levels and smaller fluctuation of company results, due to lower financial risk levels.