Modest advances, persistent inequalities: child mortality in Brazil from 2010 to 2022

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.11606/s1518-8787.2025059006452

Keywords:

Infant Mortality, Child Mortality, Socioeconomic Disparities in Health, Brazil

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the evolution of socioeconomic and regional inequalities in mortality among children under five years of age in Brazil between 2010 and 2022. METHODS: Data from 37,639,196 live births (LB) and 563,711 deaths among children under five years during the period were analyzed. Mortality rates for infants (<one year-old, IMR) and children aged one to four years were calculated. For inequality analysis, municipalities were grouped according to deciles of the 2010 Municipal Human Development Index (M-HDI). The Slope Index of Inequality (SII) and the Relative Index of Inequality (RII) were calculated. The excess mortality was estimated by applying the mortality rates observed in the highest M-HDI decile to the other deciles. The spatial distribution of deaths was analyzed according to the country’s microregions. RESULTS: The IMR decreased from 13.0 to 12.7 per thousand LB between 2010 and 2022, while mortality among children aged one to four years remained stable at 2.5 per thousand LB in 2010-2022. There was only a slight reduction in inequalities, with the SII oscillating from -5.63 to -4.91 in IMR and from -2.42 to -1.71 in mortality among children aged one to four years between 2010-2022. In 2022, municipalities with lower M-HDI had mortality rates 49.0% and 93.0% higher than those with higher M-HDI in IMR and mortality among children aged one to four years, respectively. Inequalities in IMR were more pronounced in nutritional, metabolic, and endocrine diseases, where mortality was four times higher in municipalities with lower M-HDI. There was an excess of 76,832 child deaths in Brazil between 2010-2022. In 2022, 42.2% of the microregions in the North were among the top 100 with the highest IMR, compared to only 3.2% in the South. CONCLUSIONS: There was a slight reduction in child mortality, but significant socioeconomic and regional inequalities persisted in Brazil.

References

UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation. Levels and trends in child mortality: Report 2023. New York: United Nations Children’s Fund; 2024.

Dattani S, Spooner F, Ritchie H, Roser M. Child and Infant mortality. [Local desconhecido]: Our World In Data; 2023 [citado 7 abr 2024]. Disponível em: https://ourworldindata.org/child-mortality

Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. Indicadores brasileiros para os objetivos de desenvolvimento sustentável. Rio de Janeiro: Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística; 2025 [citado 12 maio 2025]. Disponível em: https://odsbrasil.gov.br/objetivo3/indicador321

Ministério da Saúde (BR). Departamento de Informática do Sistema Único de Saúde. Mortalidade Brasil. Brasília, DF: Ministério da Saúde; [data desconhecida] [citado 5 abr 2024]. Disponível em: http://tabnet.datasus.gov.br/cgi/deftohtm.exe?sim/cnv/obt10uf.def

Szwarcwald CL, Almeida WD, Teixeira RA, França EB, Miranda MJ, Malta DC. Inequalities in infant mortality in Brazil at subnational levels in Brazil, 1990 to 2015. Popul Health Metr. 2020 Sep;18(S1 Suppl 1):4. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12963-020-00208-1

Bertoldi AD, Barros FC, Hallal PR, Mielke GI, Oliveira PD, Maia MF, et al.; Pelotas Cohorts Study Group. Trends and inequalities in maternal and child health in a Brazilian city: methodology and sociodemographic description of four population-based birth cohort studies, 1982-2015. Int J Epidemiol. 2019 Apr;48 Suppl 1:i4–15. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyy170

Bugelli A, Silva RB, Dowbor L, Sicotte C. The determinants of infant mortality in Brazil, 2010-2020: a scoping review. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 Jun;18(12):6464. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18126464

Rasella D, Basu S, Hone T, Paes-Sousa R, Ocké-Reis CO, Millett C. Child morbidity and mortality associated with alternative policy responses to the economic crisis in Brazil: a nationwide microsimulation study. PLoS Med. 2018 May;15(5):e1002570. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002570

Silva AA. Monitoring trends in socioeconomic, maternal and child health inequalities. Int J Epidemiol. 2019 Apr;48 Suppl 1:i1-3. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyz024

Fabrin C, Boing AC, Garcia LP, Boing AF. Socioeconomic inequality in hospital case fatality rate and care among children and adolescents hospitalized for COVID-19 in Brazil. Rev Bras Epidemiol. 2023 Feb;26:e230015. https://doi.org/10.1590/1980-549720230015

Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. Estimativa do sub-registro. Rio de Janeiro: Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística; 2000 [citado 25 abr 2025]. Disponível em: https://www. ibge.gov.br/estatisticas/sociais/populacao/26176-estimativa-do-sub-registro.html?edicao=39640

Programa das Nações Unidas para o Desenvolvimento, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada, Fundação João Pinheiro. Atlas de desenvolvimento humano no Brasil. Brasília, DF: PNUD, IPEA, FJP; [citado 25 abr 2025]. Disponível em: http://www.atlasbrasil.org. br/acervo/atlas

Ministério da Saúde (BR). Plataforma Open DataSUS. Brasília, DF: Ministério da Saúde; [citado 25 abr 2025]. Disponível em: https://opendatasus.saude.gov.br/

Souza AA, Mingoti SA, Paes-Sousa R, Heller L. Combination of conditional cash transfer program and environmental health interventions reduces child mortality: an ecological study of Brazilian municipalities. BMC Public Health. 2021 Mar;21(1):627. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-021-10649-4

Morosini MV, Fonseca AF, Lima LD. Política Nacional de Atenção Básica 2017: retrocessos e riscos para o Sistema Único de Saúde. Saude Debate. 2018;42(16):11-24. https://doi.org/10.1590/0103-1104201811601

Freire DE, Freire AR, Lucena EH, Cavalcanti YW. PNAB 2017 and the number of community health agents in primary care in Brazil. Rev Saude Publica. 2021 Dec;55:85. https://doi.org/10.11606/s1518-8787.2021055003005

Seta MH, Ocké-Reis CO, Ramos AL. Previne Brasil Program: the apex of threats to Primary Health Care? Cien Saude Colet. 2021 Aug;26 suppl 2:3781-6. https://doi.org/10.1590/1413-81232021269.2.01072020

Ocké-Reis CO, Marinho A, Funcia, FR. SUS: avaliação da eficiência do gasto público em saúde. Brasília: Ipea, CONASS, OPAS, 2022.

Rasella D, Hone T, Souza LE, Tasca R, Basu S, Millett C. Mortality associated with alternative primary healthcare policies: a nationwide microsimulation modelling study in Brazil. BMC Med. 2019 Apr;17(1):82. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-019-1316-7

Vieira FS. Federal spending on social policies and the social determinants of health: where are we going? Saude Debate. 2020;44(127):947-61. https://doi.org/10.1590/0103-1104202012701i.

Bezerra MS, Jacob MC, Ferreira MA, Vale D, Mirabal IR, Lyra CO. Food and nutritional insecurity in Brazil and its correlation with vulnerability markers. Cien Saude Colet. 2020 Oct;25(10):3833-46. https://doi.org/10.1590/1413-812320202510.35882018

Boing AF, Boing AC, Subramanian SV. Inequalities in the access to healthy urban structure and housing: an analysis of the Brazilian census data. Cad Saude Publica. 2021 Jun;37(6):e00233119. https://doi.org/10.1590/0102-311x00233119

Dantas MN, Souza DL, Souza AM, Aiquoc KM, Souza TA, Barbosa IR. Factors associated with poor access to health services in Brazil. Rev Bras Epidemiol. 2020 Dec;24:e210004. https://doi.org/10.1590/1980-549720210004

Macinko J, Mullachery PH. Education-related health inequities in noncommunicable diseases: an analysis of the Brazilian National Health Survey, 2013 and 2019. Cad Saude Publica 2022;Suppl 1(Suppl 1):e00137721. https://doi.org/10.1590/0102-311X00137721

Sousa LRM, Saint Ville A, Segall-Corrêa AM, Melgar-Quiñonez H. Health inequalities and well-being in times of financial and political crisis in Brazil, a case study. Glob Public Health. 2019 Dec;14(12):1815-28. https://doi.org/10.1080/17441692.2019.1616800

Shapira G, Walque D, Friedman J. How many infants may have died in low-income and middle-income countries in 2020 due to the economic contraction accompanying the COVID-19 pandemic? Mortality projections based on forecasted declines in economic growth. BMJ Open. 2021 Aug;11(9):e050551. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2021-050551

Ahmed T, Roberton T, Vergeer P, Hansen PM, Peters MA, Ofosu AA, et al. Healthcare utilization and maternal and child mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in 18 low- and middle-income countries: an interrupted time-series analysis with mathematical modeling of administrative data. PLoS Med. 2022 Aug;19(8):e1004070. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1004070

Institute of Health Equity. Health inequalities, lives cut short - January 2024. [Place unkmown]: Institute of Health Equity; 2024[citado 4 abr 2024]. https://www.instituteofhealthequity.org/ resources-reports/health-inequalities-lives-cut-short

Dantas MN, Souza DL, Souza AM, Aiquoc KM, Souza TA, Barbosa IR. Factors associated with poor access to health services in Brazil. Rev Bras Epidemiol. 2020 Dec 18;24:e210004. https://doi.org/10.1590/1980-549720210004

Lopes CG, Rocha TA, Thomaz ÉB, Tonello AS, Rocha NC, Duarte KM, et al. Desigualdades macrorregionais na atenção primária ao Diabetes Mellitus: comparação dos três ciclos do PMAQ-AB. Saude Debate. 2022;46(133):376-91. https://doi.org/10.1590/0103-1104202213309i

Published

2025-07-28

Issue

Section

Original Articles

How to Cite

Boing, A. F., & Boing, A. C. (2025). Modest advances, persistent inequalities: child mortality in Brazil from 2010 to 2022. Revista De Saúde Pública, 59, e240801. https://doi.org/10.11606/s1518-8787.2025059006452