Programas condicionais de transferência de renda e fecundidade: evidências do Bolsa Família

Abstract

The aim of this work is to contribute with the investigation about the demographic externalities of the Conditional Cash Transfer Programs (CCT). The effect of CCTs on fertility is ambiguous. It decreases the cost of raising children but increases human capital investment. The objective of this work is to verify if the “Bolsa Família” has an effect on the probability of a woman having a child and what is the signal of this correlation. To this end, we tried three different empirical strategies and, in none of them, we found any robust effect of the program on fertility.