Avaliação do horário de verão brasileiro como política pública de eficiência energética
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1590/1980-53575513ltrPalavras-chave:
Horário de verão, Curvas de carga, Modelos de regressão linearResumo
O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar as possíveis deseconomias de energia elétrica induzidas pelo fim do horário de verão em 2019. A série de observações da carga de energia elétrica do subsistema Sudeste/Centro-Oeste para cada hora do dia é variável dependente em um modelo de regressão linear múltipla. As variáveis explicativas referem-se principalmente aos atributos meteorológicos (temperatura), às periodicidades associadas ao consumo de energia elétrica (diária, semanal e anual) e a atividade econômica. A pesquisa é baseada em dados do ONS (Operador Nacional do Sistema), INMET (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia) e IPEA (Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada) de 2017 a 2021. O horário de verão reduz o consumo nas horas próximas ao crepúsculo vespertino e aumenta o consumo de energia no final da madrugada e início da manhã. Porém, o saldo líquido ao longo do dia é, em média, de 4.976,81 MWh, o que corresponde a 13,47% da potência requerida no Subsistema Sudeste/ Centro-Oeste para o horário das 18h. Vale ressaltar que próximo ao crepúsculo vespertino o sistema elétrico funciona com altas exigências de carga.
Downloads
Referências
Aries, Myriam B. C., and Guy R. Newsham. 2008. “Effect of Daylight Saving Time on Lighting Energy Use: A Literature Review.” Energy Policy 36 (6): 1858–66. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2007.05.021. “Methodological Aspects and Comparisons of IBC-Br and GDP Behavior.” 2018. 3. Brazilian Central Bank (Bacen). https://www.bcb.gov.br/conteudo/relatorioinflacao/EstudosEspeciais/Metodologia_ibc-br_pib_estudos_especiais.pdf.
Bergland, Olvar, and Faisal Mirza. 2017. “Latitudinal Effect on Energy Savings from Daylight Savings Time.”
Working Paper Series 08. Norwegian University of Life Sciences, School of Economics and Business. https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/nlsseb/2017_008.html.
Bernal, James Lopez, Steven Cummins, and Antonio Gasparrini. 2017. “Interrupted Time Series Regression
for the Evaluation of Public Health Interventions: A Tutorial.” International Journal of Epidemiology 46 (1):
–55. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyw098.
“Technical Note.” 2019a. 5. Brazilian Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME). https://www.gov.br/mme/pt-br/assuntos/secretarias/secretaria-nacional-energia-eletrica/horario-de verao/SEI_48370.000369_2019_59.pdf (accessed 16 January 2022) .
“Technical Note.” 2019b. 23. Brazilian Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME). https://www.gov.br/mme/pt-br/assuntos/secretarias/energia-eletrica/horario-de-verao/SEI_48370.000760_2019_53.pdf (accessed 16 January 2022).
Coren, Stanley. 1996. “Daylight Savings Time and Traffic Accidents.” New England Journal of Medicine 334
(14): 924–25. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJM199604043341416.
“Population Estimates.” 2022. Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). https://www.ibge.gov.
br/estatisticas/sociais/populacao/9103-estimativas-de-populacao.html?edicao=17283&t=downloads (accessed 10 January 2022).
“Annual Historical Data.” 2022. Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology (INMET). https://portal.inmet.gov.br/dadoshistoricos (accessed 16 January 2022).
“Load Curve.” 2022. National Electric System Operator (ONS). https://www.ons.org.br/Paginas/resultados-daoperacao/historico-da-operacao/curva_carga_horaria.aspx (accessed 10 January 2022).
Russell, Davidson and James G. MacKinnon. 2004. Econometric Theory and Methods. Oxford University Press.
“Energy Research Company (EPE).” 2022. Brazilian Energy Balance. https://www.epe.gov.br/sites-pt/publicacoes-dados-abertos/publicacoes/PublicacoesArquivos/publicacao-675/topico-638/BEN2022.pdf (accessed 15 January 2022).
Ewusie, Joycelyne E., Charlene Soobiah, Erik Blondal, Joseph Beyene, Lehana Thabane, and Jemila S. Hamid. 2020. “Methods, Applications and Challenges in the Analysis of Interrupted Time Series Data: A Scoping Review.”
Journal of Multidisciplinary Healthcare, 411–23. https://doi.org/doi.org/10.2147/JMDH.S241085.
Gastaldello, Danilo S., Andre N. De Souza, Haroldo L. M. Do Amaral, Pedro Faria, and Zita Vale. 2014. “Study of Load Curves Concerning the Influence of Socioeconomic and Cultural Issues.” In , 1–6. Europe: IEEE. https://doi.org/10.1109/ISGTEurope.2014.7028957
Giacomelli-Sobrinho, Valny, Eva Cudlínová, Roman Buchtele, and Nikola Sagapova. 2022. “The Tropical Twilight of Daylight-Saving Time (DST): Enlightening Energy Savings from Electricity Markets across Brazilian Regions.” Energy for Sustainable Development 67:81–92. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esd.2022.01.002.
Grottera, Carolina, Carine Barbier, Alessandro Sanches-Pereira, Mariana Weiss De Abreu, Christiane Uchôa, Luís Gustavo Tudeschini, Jean-Michel Cayla, et al. 2018. “Linking Electricity Consumption of Home Appliances and Standard of Living: A Comparison between Brazilian and French Households.” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 94:877–88. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2018.06.063.
Guven, Cahit, Haishan Yuan, Quanda Zhang, and Vural Aksakalli. 2021. “When Does Daylight Saving Time Save Electricity? Weather and Air-Conditioning.” Energy Economics 98. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105216.
Harrison, Yvonne. 2013. “The Impact of Daylight Saving Time on Sleep and Related Behaviours.” Sleep Medicine Reviews 17 (4): 285–92. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.smrv.2012.10.001.
Kotchen, Matthew J., and Laura E. Grant. 2011. “Does Daylight Saving Time Save Energy? Evidence from a
Natural Experiment in Indiana.” Review of Economics and Statistics 93 (4): 1172–85. https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00131.
Kountouris, Yiannis, and Kyriaki Remoundou. 2014. “About Time: Daylight Saving Time Transition and Individual Well-Being.” Economics Letters 122 (1): 100–103. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2013.10.032.
Küfeoğlu, Sinan, Şahincan Üçler, Furkan Eskicioğlu, E. Büşra Öztürk, and Hao Chen. 2021. “Daylight Saving
Time Policy and Energy Consumption.” Energy Reports 7:5013–25. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2021.08.025.
Lahti, Tuuli, Esa Nysten, Jari Haukka, Pekka Sulander, and Timo Partonen. 2010. “Daylight Saving Time Transitions and Road Traffic Accidents.” Journal of Environmental and Public Health. https://doi.org/10.1155/2010/657167.
Lawson, André, Guilherme Pereira, and Mariana Weiss. 2017. “Daylight Saving Time: A Historical Controversy.” Opinion Notebook. https://repositorio.fgv.br/server/api/core/bitstreams/15490feb-3cd2-48e6-a9f6-fc3c8a6d1b67/content (accessed 15 February 2022).
Li, Danny H. W., Liu Yang, and Joseph C. Lam. 2012. “Impact of Climate Change on Energy Use in the Built
Environment in Different Climate Zones – A Review.” Energy 42 (1): 103–12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2012.03.044.
Mirza, Faisal Mehmood, and Olvar Bergland. 2011. “The Impact of Daylight Saving Time on Electricity Consumption: Evidence from Southern Norway and Sweden.” Energy Policy 39 (6): 3558–71. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.03.057.
“Daylight Saving Time.” 2022. Brazilian Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME). 2022. https://www.gov.br/mme/pt-br/assuntos/secretarias/secretaria-nacional-energia-eletrica/horario-de-verao/horario-de-verao.
“The National Interconnected System.” n.d. National Electric System Operator (ONS). http://www.ons.org.br:80/paginas/sobre-o-sin/o-que-e-o-sin (Accessed 4 November 2021).
Priva, Uriel Cohen, and Chelsea Sanker. 2019. “Limitations of Difference-in-Difference for Measuring Convergence.” Laboratory Phonology 10 (1). https://doi.org/10.5334/labphon.200.
Ramanathan, Ramu, Robert Engle, Clive W. J. Granger, Farshid Vahid-Araghi, and Casey Brace. 1997. “Short-Run Forecasts of Electricity Loads and Peaks.” International Journal of Forecasting 13 (2): 161–74. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2070(97)00015-0.
Rivers, Nicholas. 2018. “Does Daylight Savings Time Save Energy? Evidence from Ontario.” Environmental
and Resource Economics 70 (2): 517–43. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-017-0131-x.
Roenneberg, Till, Eva C. Winnebeck, and Elizabeth B. Klerman. 2019. “Daylight Saving Time and Artificial
Time Zones–a Battle between Biological and Social Times.” Frontiers in Physiology 10. https://doi.org/10.3389/fphys.2019.00944.
Sexton, Alison L., and Timothy K. M. Beatty. 2014. “Behavioral Responses to Daylight Savings Time.” Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 107:290–307. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2014.03.012.
Varughese, Jason, and Richard P. Allen. 2001. “Fatal Accidents Following Changes in Daylight Savings Time:
The American Experience.” Sleep Medicine 2 (1): 31–36. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1389-9457(00)00032-0.
Vaz, Lucélia Viviane, and Getulio Borges da Silveira Filho. 2017. “Functional Autoregressive Models: An Application to Brazilian Hourly Electricity Load.” Brazilian Review of Econometrics 37 (2): 297–325. https://doi.org/10.12660/bre.v37n22017.62293.
Weedmark, David. 2018. “The Advantages & Disadvantages of a Multiple Regression Model”. Sciencing. https://sciencing.com/advantages-disadvantages-multiple-regression-model-12070171.html.
Zhou, Huanxue, Christopher Taber, Steve Arcona, and Yunfeng Li. 2016. “Difference-in-Differences Method in Comparative Effectiveness Research: Utility with Unbalanced Groups.” Applied Health Economics and Health Policy 14:419–29. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40258-016-0249-y.
Downloads
Publicado
Edição
Seção
Licença
Copyright (c) 2025 Lucélia Viviane Vaz Raad, Tales Siqueira da Cruz, Renata Lúcia Magalhães de Oliveira
Este trabalho está licenciado sob uma licença Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
A submissão de artigo autoriza sua publicação e implica o compromisso de que o mesmo material não esteja sendo submetido a outro periódico.
A revista não paga direitos autorais aos autores dos artigos publicados.
Dados de financiamento
-
Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais
Números do Financiamento APQ-01990-22
Atualizado em 02/08/2024