Abertura comercial e inflação: uma análise para dados em painel
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1590/S0101-41612005000300006Palavras-chave:
inflação, abertura comercial, endividamento externo, raiz unitária e dados em painelResumo
Este estudo tem como objetivo tentar verificar a existência de uma relação robusta entre inflação e abertura comercial por meio do emprego da metodologia de dados em painel. Romer (1993), usando dados de cross-section para uma amostra ampla de países, concluiu que existe uma forte relação negativa entre essas duas variáveis. Diferentemente, Terra (1997, 1998), usando a mesma base de dados, mostra que isto somente ocorre para países cujo endividamento externo tem influência sobre a condução da política monetária, ou seja, países altamente endividados. Os resultados encontrados no presente trabalho, a partir da aplicação da metodologia para dados em painel, se aproximam daqueles obtidos por Terra (1997, 1998) e mostram que a correlação negativa entre inflação e abertura comercial desaparece quando se leva em consideração o efeito individual de cada país, sendo que ela somente persiste para países com médio e elevado grau de endividamento externo.Downloads
Referências
ABUAF, N.; JORION, P. Purchasing power parity in the long run. Journal of Finance 45, p. 157-174, 1990.
ALFARO, L. Inflation, openness and exchange rate regimes: the quest for shortterm
commitment. Harvard Business School Working Paper Series, n. 02-014, 2001.
ASHRA, S. Inflation and openness: a study of selected development economies. Indian
Council For Research on International Economic Relations, Working Paper n. 84, May 2002.
BALTAGI, B. H. Econometric analysis of panel data. John Wiley & Sons, 1995.
BARRO, R. J.; GORDON, D. B. A positive theory of monetary policy in a natural rate model. Journal of Political Economy, v. 91, n. 4, p. 589-610, 1983.
BILGINSOY, Cihan. Inflation, growth, and import bottlenecks in the Turkish manufacturing
industry. Journal of Developments Economics, 42, p. 111-31, 1993.
BLEANEY, M. The disappearing openness-inflation relationship: a cross-country
analysis of inflation rates. IMF Working Paper, n. 161, December 1999.
BOWDLER, C. Openness and output-inflation tradeoff. Nuffield College Working
Paper, March 2003.
CAVALLARI, L. Inflation and openness with non-atomistic wage setters. University of Rome “La Sapienza”, Working Paper, 2001.
ENTORF, H. Random walks with drifts: Nonsense regressions and spurious fixedeffect
estimation. Journal of Econometrics, v. 80, issue 2, p. 287-296, 1997.
GOLDFAJN, I.; WELANG, S. R. C. The pass-through from depreciation to inflation:
a panel study. Texto para Discussão 05, Banco Central do Brasil, 2000.
HADRI, K. Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data. The Econometrics
Journal, 3, p. 148-161, 2000.
HARDOUVELIS, G. A. Monetary policy games, inflationary bias, and openness. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 16, p. 147-64, 1992.
HAUSMAN, J. A. Specification test in econometrics. Econometrica, v. 46, n. 6, p.1251-1271, 1978.
HSIAO, Cheng. Analysis of panel data. Econometric Society Monographs, N. 11, 2003.
IM, K. S.; PESARAN, M. H.; SHIN, Y. Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115, p. 53-74, 2003.
IYOHA, M. A. Inflation and openness in less development economies: a crosscountry
analysis: reply. Economic Development and Cultural Change, v. 26, n. 1, p. 153-55, 1977.
JUDGE, G.; HILL, C.; GRIFFITHS, W.; LEE, T.; LÜTKEPOHL, H. Introduction to the theory and practice of econometrics. New York: Wiley, 1982.
KIRKPATRICK, C. H.; NIXON, F. I. Inflation and openness in less development economies: a cross-country analysis: comment. Economic Development and Cultural Change, v. 26, n. 1, p. 147-52, 1977.
KYDLAND, F. E.; PRESCOTT, E. C. Rules rather than discretion: the inconsistency of optimal plans. Journal of Political Economy, v. 85, n. 3, p. 473-91, 1977.
LANE, P. R. Inflation in open economics. Journal of International Economics, 42, p.
-47, 1997.
LEVIN, A.; LIN, C.; CHIA-SHANG, James Chu. Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite sample properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108, p. 1-24, 2002.
LO, M.; WONG, M. C. S.; GRANATO, J. Openness and aggressive monetary policy:
a study of inflation volatility and persistence. University of Southern Mississippi Working Paper, 2003.
PEDRONI, P. Critical values for cointegration test in heterogeneous panels with
multiple regressions. Oxford Economic Papers, v. 61(0), p. 653-670, Special Issue 1999.
PHILLIPS, P. C. B.; MOON, H. R. Linear regression limit theory for nonstationary panel data. Econometrica, v. 67, n. 5, p. 1057-1111, 1999.
PHILLIPS, P. C. B. & MOON, H. R. Estimation of autoregressive roots near unity using panel data, Econometric Theory, v. 16, n. 6, p. 927-998, December, 2000.
ROGOFF, Kenneth. Can international monetary policy cooperation be counterproductive?
Journal of International Economics, 18, p. 199-217, 1985.
ROMER, David. A new assessment of openness and inflation: reply. Quarterly Journal
of Economics, v. 113, n. 2, p. 649-52, 1998.
ROMER, David. Openness and inflation: theory and evidence. Quarterly Journal of Economics,
v. 108, n. 4, p. 869-903, 1993.
TAYLOR, Mark P.; SARNO, Lucio. The behavior of real exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods period. Journal of International Economics, 46, p. 281-312, 1998.
SUMMERS, R.; HESTON, A. A new set of international comparisons of real product and price levels estimates for 130 countries, 1950-1985. Review of Income and Wealth, 34, p. 1-25, 1988.
TELLA, R.; MacCULLOCH, R. Unemployment benefits as a substitute for a conservative
Central Banker. Harvard Business School Working Paper Series, May 2000.
TEMPLE, Jonathan. Openness, inflation and the Phillips Curve: a puzzle. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2002, forthcoming.
TERRA, C. T. Debt crisis and inflation. Revista de Econometria, v. 17, n. 2, p. 21-48, 1997.
TERRA, C. T. Openness and inflation: a new assessment. Quarterly Journal of Economics,
v. 113, n. 2, p. 641-48, 1998.
TRIFFIN, R.; GRUDEL, H. The adjustment mechanism to differential rates of monetary expansion among the countries of the European Economic Community. Review of Economics and Statistics, 44, p. 486-91, 1962.
WALSH, C. E. Monetary theory and policy. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1998.
Downloads
Publicado
Edição
Seção
Licença
Copyright (c) 2005 João Batista de Britto Machado, Adolfo Sachsida, Mário Jorge Cardoso de Mendonça
Este trabalho está licenciado sob uma licença Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
A submissão de artigo autoriza sua publicação e implica o compromisso de que o mesmo material não esteja sendo submetido a outro periódico.
A revista não paga direitos autorais aos autores dos artigos publicados.
Atualizado em 02/08/2024