Transição para regimes previdenciários de capitalização e seus efeitos macroeconômicos de longo prazo no Brasil

Abstract

Reforming Social Security Systems has been, during this decade, one of the most important governmental task concerning to the fiscal area, not only in Brazil, but also at the most countries of Latin America. At macroeconomic level many effects can be verified when changing from Pay-As-You-Go (PAYGO) to Fully-Funded (FF) system. This paper has the purpose to verify, by using an overlapping generation model with 55 generation, the consequences at the macroeconomic level and over the welfare of the individual in steady state because of changing the systems. On a general view, the results of the simulation indicate that the Fully-Funded systems produce a more capital intensive economy, having low interest levels and high wages levels. However, this result would be conditioned to the transition financing approach.