Impact of the demographic transition on tax collection in Brazil: an analysis of the federative Aspect

Abstract

Several countries have been experiencing a process of population aging. In Brazil, this demographic process, according to Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics projections, reaching 24% in 2040 and 34% in 2060. Thus, the present study innovates when proposing the evaluation of the impact of population aging on tax revenue, with special attention to the analysis of the impact on the collection of taxes on consumption, since the consumption basket tends to be different between young and old people.  In order to do that, we use a 4-sector overlapping generation model (OLG) with 55 generations. The results suggest a reduction of output, consumption, working hours and investment.  Tax revenues would fall more than output, with a larger reduction in consumption taxes. However, we observe that local revenue is less affected, due to the increase in the consumption of services, induced by the process of population ageing.