Impactos de políticas econômicas alternativas sobre o desempenho na agricultura: uma análise de equilibrio geral
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11606/1980-53571516mcssAbstract
This study attempts to assess quantitatively the economic effects of alternative policies on the performance of the Brazilian agricultural sector. In order to do this, a general equilibrium model nonlinear and dynamic was built, in which the price mechanism I plays on important role in resource allocation. The model is disaggregated in such a way as to permit the analysis of the agricultural sector within the context in which it is inserted. Strong emphasis is put on rural-urban interaction. Four policies were tested for this paper. First, two policies especifically related to the rural sector are discussed: (a) increased growth in agriculture (AGRDland (b) increased investment in agriculture (AGR2). We next explored two urban policies: (c)changes in urban protecionism (URBI) and (d) reduction in industrial growth (URB2). The results of the runs suggest that (a) the economy reacts to the policies tested in terms of price, the "real" side staying|relatively stable, (b) the long-term effects of some policies could be significantly different from the short/medium-term effects, showing the importance of using a general equilibrium model to analyse such policies, (c) rural-urban terms of trade constitutes a crucial variable in the determination of intersectorial income distribution and (d) urban protecionism constitutes a burden for agriculture.
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Atualizado em 14/08/2025