Determinants of the dark figure of crime in Brazil: an analysis using PNAD data 2009

Abstract

This article estimates the dark figure of the crime for theft, robbery and physical aggression (bodily injury) using a national representative survey from Brazil (PNAD 2009). In order to obtain a complete profile of the occurrence of this phenomenon in Brazil, several estimates are made considering demographic, economic and social aspects. Subsequently, a probit regression model is estimated in order to identify the main determinants of the dark figure of crime. The results show that, on average, 62.55% of theft, robbery and physical aggression cases do not reach police records and people with lower educational level and younger people generally contribute to increase the dark figure of crime. These and other results obtained directly contribute to public security policies as well as to obtain crime statistics.