Export led growth induced and virtuous circle: a cluster analysis of economies between 1950 and 2019
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1590/1980-53575545mlslKeywords:
Exports, Círculo virtuoso, CrescimentoAbstract
This article aimed at investigating, through a Kaldorian approach, the export led growth in a sample of 183 economies in the period from 1950 to 2019. Two hypotheses were evaluated: the one of the virtuous circle, which the increase in the export growth rate elevates the economic growth rate, and the vicious circle, in which at least one of the links in the causal and cumulative process is zero. The hypotheses are tested using longitudinal clusters defined by the average trend of real GDP in the economies. In addition to GDP evolution clusters from the Phillips and Sul methodology (2007; 2009), a multiple regression of the Growth Model with Cumulative Causality was estimated, using panel data and fixed effect control. As a result, 70 economies were found to be in the virtuous circle and 113 in the vicious circle of growth.
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Atualizado em 14/08/2025