A method for scenario planning using stakeholder analysis: a study in the retail automation industry in Brazil

Abstract

The development of scenarios is often criticized for being very costly and complex, a factor that limits its broad implementation in organizations, especially if the methods described in the literature are followed in all their details. The main goal of this article is to propose a method for scenario planning, comprehensible enough to make it operationally viable, but carrying the needed methodological rigor. The method is based in the intuitive logic methodology and uses stakeholder analysis to generate the variables for scenario building. There is also a second objective in testing the model, what happened in the retail automation industry in Brazil. The foundings showed that the proposed method is operationally viable and that stakeholder analysis is a useful tool for this kind data gathering. Regarding to the retail automation industry in Brazil, were found that the Federal Government, the competition, the distribution uncertainties in that industry are related to Fiscal Law Reformation and to the changes in the behavior of consumers and retailers.