Rehabilitation Workforce in Brazil: projections for 2030
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11606/issn.2317-0190.v33e239503Keywords:
Unified Health System, Health Human Resources, Rate Projection, Time Factors, RehabilitationAbstract
Objective: To analyze the evolution of the rehabilitation workforce and project the scenario for 2030. Method: An ecological time-series study and projection of the rehabilitation workforce rate of physical therapists, speech-language pathologists, psychologists, and occupational therapists per 10,000 inhabitants in Brazil. Data were collected monthly from the National Register of Health Establishments (Cadastro Nacional de Estabelecimentos de Saúde) from January 2010 to December 2023. The rates were projected for each professional category for Primary Health Care (APS), Secondary Health Care (AES), and Tertiary Health Care (AHS) monthly until December 2030 using ARIMA Models, and the difference in the annual average of the projection from 2010 to 2030 was calculated. Results: Physical therapy stood out with a 206.2% increase in the rate in APS between 2010 and 2030 (2010= 0.22; 2022= 0.51; 2030= 0.69 physical therapists/10,000 inhabitants). In AES, the highlight was psychologists, with an increase of 170.13% between 2010 and 2030 (2010= 0.42; 2022= 0.75; 2030= 1.13 psychologists/10,000 inhabitants). In AHS, physical therapists saw a 247.19% increase between 2010 and 2030 (2010= 0.46; 2022= 1.54; 2030= 1.61 physical therapists/10,000 inhabitants). For speech-language pathology and occupational therapy, a decrease in APS from 2022 to 2030 is estimated, -1.73% and -1.04%, respectively. Conclusion: There is a predicted growth of the rehabilitation workforce in Brazil's Unified Health System (Sistema Único de Saúde) until 2030. Physical therapists and psychologists showed the largest increases from 2010 to 2022, and consequently, the greatest predicted growth until 2030
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