Industrialização e desenvolvimento no governo Vargas: uma análise empírica de mudanças estruturais

Abstract

In this paper we evaluate the economic legacy of Getúlio Vargas using time series methods to identify structural breaks. Specifically, we use a trend stationary model to represent the overall index of manufacturing output and the indices of output for the food, textile, chemical, metallurgical, and nonmetallic minerals industries in Brazil from 1919 to 1968. This period encompasses the four distinct periods of Vargas’ rule and a period during which Brazil moved to develop basic industries such as steel and petrochemicals. We conclude that Vargas had an important effect on the economic development of Brazil. During his rule the country moved from a largely agrarian society with some light industry to a largely urban, industrial society with major heavy industry (Fonseca, 1989). Vargas’ policies appear to have caused structural breaks in the development of the steel and nonmetallic mineral industries. The changes do not appear to have been substantial enough to lead to significant structural change in the overall index of manufacturing output.