EFES - um modelo aplicado de equilíbrio geral para a economia brasileira: projeções setoriais para 1999-2004

Abstract

The discussion of economic prospects in the present context of the Brazilian economy has often lacked a formal analytical framework. Hence, if policy analysis is to be based on sound, consistent economic theory and data, it is important that an analytical framework be developed to provide this capability. Accordingly, the primary analytical focus of this paper is to develop a forward-looking CGE model for Brazil. The model is used to project a consistent medium-run scenario for the period 1999-2004 based on a combination of macroeconomic projections derived from a satellite macro-consistency model developed jointly at the World Bank and FIPE, forecasts of exports, technical changes and expert advice. Preliminary sectoral results point to a better performance of sectors related to the investment cycle and producers of dynamic export products. Moreover, a trend towards a weak import substitution process is apparent in the projection period.