Fragilidade financeira, equilíbrios múltiplos e flutuações endógenas: um modelo pós-keynesiano não-linear de ciclos econômicos

Abstract

This article presents a non-linear version of Taylor and O´Connell model of Minskian financial crisis. In order to do that, we introduce some modifications  in the basic structure of that model, that is : (i) investment finance made by equities and bank credit ; (ii) low sensibility of demand for equities in relation to interest rates. These new hypothesis are sufficient to produce a backward bending equilibrium locus in financial markets and to assure that the effect of an increase in the state of confidence over equilibrium levels of interest rate and capacity utilization is conditional to the initial level of the state of confidence. In this setting, can be shown the existence of a U-shaped relation between state of confidence and financial fragility. This relation is sufficient to produce (i) two steady-state positions for the state of confidence and (ii) an endogenous cycle for the state of confidence and capacity utilization.