Pension system and migration: What happens to workers who leave Brazil and retire in Spain and Portugal?
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-41615113gclaKeywords:
Pension system, Retirement, Migration, Pension indicatorsAbstract
This article aims to analyze the impacts on Brazilian workers who migrate during their working lives to Spain or Portugal and retire in these countries. This is done from the perspective of the worker, based on the social security agreements between these nations, considering the different rules of contribution, eligibility conditions and calculation of old-age benefits. Pension values and three pension indicators are calculated: Replacement Rate (RR), Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Necessary Contribution Rate (AliqNec) for each situation analyzed. Additionally, an indicator is proposed to measure the variation in the contribution needed to fund the benefit in the destination country, resulting from the migration. The main results show that, although the RR values may increase with migration (except for individuals with higher income), the other indicators tend to be lower, in particular due to the higher retirement age in Portugal and Spain.
Downloads
References
Afonso, Luís Eduardo. 2016. “Progressividade e Aspectos Distributivos Na Previdência Social: Uma Análise Com o Emprego Dos Microdados Dos Registros Administrativos Do RGPS.” Revista Brasileira de Economia 70, no.1: 3–30. https://doi.org/10.5935/0034-7140.20160001.
Afonso, Luís Eduardo. 2018. “Reforma Temer: Os Impactos Da PEC 287/2016 Sobre o RGPS.” In Desafios Da Nação: Artigos de Apoio, v. 2, editado por João Alberto de Negri, Bruno César Araújo, e Ricardo Bacelette, 253–84. Brasília: IPEA. http://www.ipea.gov.br/portal/images/stories/PDFs/livros/livros/180413_desafios_da_nacao_artigos_vol2_cap23.pdf.
Alves, José, Daniela Craveiro, Maria Teresa Medeiros Garcia, e Paula Albuquerque. 2019. “The Impact of International Migration on the Public Pension System: The Case of Portugal.” International Social Security Review 72, no.1: 107–28. https://doi.org/10.1111/issr.12197.
Avato, Johanna, Johannes Koettl, e Rachel Sabates-Wheeler. 2010. “Social Security Regimes, Global Estimates, and Good Practices: The Status of Social Protection for International Migrants.” World Development 38, no.4: 455–66. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2009.10.003.
Barr, Nicholas, e Peter Diamond. 2006. “The Economics of Pensions.” Oxford Review of Economic Policy 22, no.1: 15–39. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grj002.
Becker, Gary S. 1975. Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis, with Special Reference to Education. 2nd ed. New York: Columbia University Press. http://papers.nber.org/books/beck75-1.
Bodvarsson, Örn B., e Hendrik Van den Berg. 2013. “The Determinants of International Migration: Theory.” In The Economics of Immigration 27–57. New York, NY: Springer New York. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-2116-0_2.
Borjas, George J. 1999. “The Economic Analysis of Immigration.” In Handbook of Labor Economics 3 Part A:1697–1760. Amsterdam: Elsevier Masson SAS. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1573-4463(99)03009-6.
Bridges, Benjamin, e Sharmila Choudhury. 2007. “Social Security as a Retirement Resource for Near-Retirees, by Race and Ethnicity, Nativity, Benefit Type, and Disability Status.” ORES Working Paper Series 109. Washington, D.C. https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/workingpapers/wp109.html.
Caetano, Marcelo Abi-Ramia. 2006. “Subsídios Cruzados Na Previdência Social Brasileira.” Texto Para Discussão - IPEA 1211. Brasília. http://www.ipea.gov.br/portal/images/stories/PDFs/TDs/td_1211.pdf.
Campos, Marden Barbosa De. 2015. “Seletividade e Migração.” In População, Espaço e Sustentabilidade: Contribuições Para o Desenvolvimento Do Brasil, editado por Miguel Bruno, 187–202. Rio de Janeiro: Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. https://biblioteca.ibge.gov.br/visualizacao/livros/liv94508.pdf.
Clingman, Michael, Kyle Burkhalter, e Chris Chaplain. 2014. “Internal Real Rates of Return under the OASDI Program for Hypothetical Workers.” Actuarial Note 2014.5. Baltimore, Maryland. https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/NOTES/ran5/an2014-5.pdf.
Clingman, Michael, Kyle Burkhalter, e Chris Chaplain. 2019. “Internal Real Rates of Return under the OASDI Program for Hypothetical Workers.” Actuarial Note 2018.5. Baltimore, Maryland. https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/NOTES/ran5/an2018-5.pdf.
Cohen, Lee, e Howard Iams. 2007. “Income Adequacy and Social Security Differences between the Foreign-Born and U.S.-Born.” International Migration Review 41, no.3: 553–78. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-7379.2007.00085.x.
Collado, M. Dolores, Iñigo Iturbe-Ormaetxe, e Guadalupe Valera. 2004. “Quantifying the Impact of Immigration on the Spanish Welfare State.” International Tax and Public Finance 11, no.3: 335–53. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:ITAX.0000021975.20256.ff.
Couch, Kenneth A., Gayle L. Reznik, Christopher R. Tamborini, e Howard M. Iams. 2017. “The Distributional Impact of Social Security Policy Options.” Research on Aging 39, no.1: 135–65. https://doi.org/10.1177/0164027516656140.
Czaika, Mathias, e Hein de Haas. 2014. “The Globalization of Migration: Has the World Become More Migratory?” International Migration Review 48, no.2: 283–323. https://doi.org/10.1111/imre.12095.
Díaz-Gimenez, Javier, e Julián Díaz-Saavedra. 2017. “The Future of Spanish Pensions.” Journal of Pension Economics and Finance 16, no.02: 233–65. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1474747216000093.
Direção-Geral da Segurança Social (DGSS). 2020. “Código Dos Regimes Contributivos Do Sistema Previdencial de Segurança Social: Redação Em Vigor.” Lisboa: Instituto de Segurança Social. http://www.seg-social.pt/documents/10152/15009350/Código contributivo - redação em vigor/1e56fad5-0e2a-42c2-b94c-194c4aa64f74.
Dixon, John. 1998. “Comparative Social Security: The Challenge of Evaluation.” Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis: Research and Practice 1, no.1: 61–95. https://doi.org/10.1080/13876989808412616.
Docquier, Frédéric, e Luca Marchiori. 2012. “The Impact of MENA-to-EU Migration in the Context of Demographic Change.” Journal of Pension Economics and Finance 11, no.2: 243–84. https://doi.org/10.1017/S147474721100028X.
Fenge, Robert, e François Peglow. 2018. “Decomposition of Demographic Effects on the German Pension System.” Journal of the Economics of Ageing 12 (February): 61–76. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeoa.2018.01.001.
Fornalé, Elisa. 2017. “Global-Regional Interaction to Extend Access to Social Protection for Migrant Workers: Insights from ASEAN and MERCOSUR.” International Social Security Review 70, no.3: 31–52. https://doi.org/10.1111/issr.12140.
Forteza, Alvaro. 2010. “The Portability of Pension Rights: General Principles and the Caribbean Case.” Development Policy Review 28, no.2: 237–55. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-7679.2010.00483.x.
Forteza, Alvaro, e Guzmán Ourens. 2009. “How Much Do Latin American Pension Programs Promise to Pay Back?”. Social Protection Discussion Paper 0927. Washington, D.C. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/773451468047801758/How-much-do-Latin-American-pension-programs-promise-to-pay-back.
Genser, Bernd, e Robert Holzmann. 2020. “Pensions in a Globalizing World: How Do (N)DC and (N)DB Schemes Fare and Compare on Portability and Taxation?” In Progress and Challenges of Nonfinancial Defined Contribution Pension Schemes, Volume 2: Addressing Gender, Administration and Communication, editado por Robert Holzmann, Edward Palmer, Robert Palacios, e Stefano Sacchi, 289–316. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/32439.
Godínez-Olivares, Humberto, María del Carmen Boado-Penas, e Steven Haberman. 2016. “Optimal Strategies for Pay-as-You-Go Pension Finance: A Sustainability Framework.” Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 69 (July): 117–26. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2016.05.001.
Greenwood, Michael J., e John M. McDowell. 2011. “USA Immigration Policy, Source-Country Social Programs, and the Skill Composition of Legal USA Immigration.” Journal of Population Economics 24, no.2: 521–39. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-009-0273-4.
Greenwood, Michael J., John M. McDowell, Donald M. Waldman, e Steven S. Zahniser. 1999. “The Influence of Social Programs in Source Countries on Various Classes of U.S. Immigration.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 94, no.445: 64–74. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1999.10473819.
Gustman, Alan L., e Thomas L. Steinmeier. 2001. “How Effective Is Redistribution under the Social Security Benefit Formula?” Journal of Public Economics 82, no.1: 1–28. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0047-2727(00)00153-5.
Holzmann, Robert. 2016. “Bilateral Social Security Agreements and Pensions Portability: A Study of Four Migrant Corridors between EU and Non-EU Countries.” International Social Security Review 69, no.3–4: 109–30. https://doi.org/10.1111/issr.12110.
Holzmann, Robert, e Jacques Wels. 2020. “The Cross‐border Portability of Social Security Benefits: Status and Progress?” International Social Security Review 73, no.1: 65–97. https://doi.org/10.1111/issr.12228.
Holzmann, Robert, Jacques Wels, e Pamela Dale. 2016a. “Assessing Benefit Portability for International Migrant Workers: A Review of the Austria-Turkey Bilateral Social Security Agreement.” Social Protection & Labor Discussion Paper 1602. Washington, D.C. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/06/26436651/assessing-benefit-portability-international-migrant-workers-review-austria-turkey-bilateral-social-security-agreement.
Holzmann, Robert, Jacques Wels, e Pamela Dale. 2016b. “Assessing Benefit Portability for International Migrant Workers: A Review of the Belgium-Morocco Bilateral Social Security Agreement.” Social Protection & Labor Discussion Paper 1603. Washington, D.C. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/06/26436648/assessing-benefit-portability-international-migrant-workers-review-belgium-morocco-bilateral-social-security-agreement.
Holzmann, Robert, Jacques Wels, e Pamela Dale. 2016c. “Assessing Benefit Portability for International Migrant Workers: A Review of the France-Morocco Bilateral Social Security Agreement.” 1604. Social Protection & Labor Discussion Paper 1604. Washington, D.C. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/313201484110324776/Assessing-benefit-portability-for-international-migrant-workers-a-review-of-the-France-Morocco-bilateral-social-security-agreement.
Holzmann, Robert, Jacques Wels, e Pamela Dale. 2016d. “Assessing Benefit Portability for International Migrant Workers: A Review of the Germany-Turkey Bilateral Social Security Agreement.” Social Protection & Labor Discussion Paper 1606. Washington, D.C. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/06/26442094/assessing-benefit-portability-international-migrant-workers-review-germany-turkey-bilateral-social-security-agreement.
Holzmann, Robert, e Martin Werding. 2015. “Portability of Social Benefits: Research on a Critical Topic in Globalization.” CESifo Economic Studies 61, no.2: 335–45. https://doi.org/10.1093/cesifo/ifv009.
INSS. 2007. “Convenção Multilateral Ibero-Americana de Segurança Social.” Brasília: INSS. https://www.inss.gov.br/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Convencao-Multilateral-Iberoamericana-Seguranca-Social.pdf.
INSS. 2019. “Agora é 86/96: Fórmula Para Cálculo Do Valor Da Aposentadoria Por Tempo de Contribuição é Atualizado.” INSS. 2019. https://www.inss.gov.br/agora-e-86-96-formula-para-calculo-do-valor-da-aposentadoria-por-tempo-de-contribuicao-e-atualizado/.
International Labour Organization (ILO). 2014. “Facts on Social Security.” 2014. https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---dgreports/---dcomm/documents/publication/wcms_067588.pdf.
International Social Security Association (ISSA). 2010. “Demographic Changes and Social Security: Challenges and Opportunities.” In World Social Security Forum. 30th ISSA General Assembly, 21. Cape Town: International Social Security Association.
ISSA. 2018. “10 Global Challenges for Social Security. Asia and Pacific.” Geneva. https://www.issa.int/en/-/10-global-challenges-for-social-security-asia-pacific.
La Fuente, Angel De, e Rafael Domenéch. 2013. “The Financial Impact of Spanish Pension Reform: A Quick Estimate.” Journal of Pension Economics and Finance 12, no.01: 111–37. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1474747212000182.
Labouré, Marion. 2019. “Pensions: The Impact of Migrations and Cross-Border Workers in a Small Open Economy.” Journal of Pension Economics and Finance 18, no.2: 247–70. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1474747217000464.
Lacomba, Juan A., e Francisco Lagos. 2010. “Immigration and Pension Benefits in the Host Country.” Economica 77, no.306: 283–95. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0335.2008.00770.x.
Lee, Everett S. 1966. “A Theory of Migration.” Demography 3, no.1: 47. https://doi.org/10.2307/2060063.
Lewis, W. Arthur. 1954. “Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labour.” The Manchester School 22, no.2: 139–91. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9957.1954.tb00021.x.
Liddo, Giuseppe Di. 2018. “Immigration and PAYG Pension Systems in the Presence of Increasing Life Expectancy.” Economics Letters 162 (January): 56–61. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2017.10.024.
Liebman, Jeffrey B. 2002. “Redistribution in the Current U.S. Social Security System.” In The Distributional Aspects of Social Security and Social Security Reform, editado por Martin Feldstein e Jeffrey B. Liebman, I:11–48. Cambridge, MA.: University of Chicago Press. http://www.nber.org/chapters/c9747.pdf.
Lopez, Mary J., e Sita Slavov. 2019. “Do Immigrants Delay Retirement and Social Security Claiming?” NBER Working Paper Series 25518. Cambridge, MA. http://www.nber.org/papers/w25518.
Barbon, Júlia. 2017. “Lei de Migração: O Que Muda Nas Regras Para Estrangeiros No Brasil.” Folha de São Paulo, Maio 14, 2017. https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/cotidiano/2017/05/1883696-lei-de-migracao-o-que-muda-nas-regras-para-estrangeiros-no-brasil.shtml
Massey, Douglas S., Joaquin Arango, Graeme Hugo, Ali Kouaouci, Adela Pellegrino, e J. Edward Taylor. 1993. “Theories of International Migration: A Review and Appraisal.” Population and Development Review 19, no.3: 431. https://doi.org/10.2307/2938462.
Massey, Douglas S., Joaquin Arango, Graeme Hugo, Ali Kouaouci, Adela Pellegrino, e J. Edward Taylor. 1998. Worlds in Motion: Understanding International Migration at the End of the Millenium. Oxford: Clarendon Press.
Ministerio de Empleo y Seguridad Social (MESS). 2019. “Bases y Tipos de Cotización 2016.” Madrid: Ministerio de Empleo y Seguridad Social. http://www.seg-social.es/wps/portal/wss/internet/Trabajadores/CotizacionRecaudacionTrabajadores/36537.
Modigliani, Franco, e Richard Brumberg. 1954. “Utility Analysis and The Consumption Function: An Interpretation of Cross-Section Data.” In PostKeynesian Economics, editado por K. Kurihara, 388–436. New Brunswick: Rutgers University Press.
Neysmith, Sheila M., e Jane Aronson. 2012. “Global Aging and Comparative Research: Pushing Theoretical and Methodological Boundaries.” Journal of Aging Studies 26, no.3: 227–31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaging.2012.02.001.
Pallares-Miralles, Montserrat, Carolina Romero, e Edward Whitehouse. 2012. “International Patterns of Pension Provision II: A Worldwide Overview of Facts and Figures.” Social Protection & Labor Discussion Paper 1211. Washington, D.C. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/143611468168560687/pdf/703190NWP0SPL000Box370035B00PUBLIC0.pdf.
Quinn, Joseph F. 1999. “Criteria for Evaluating Social Security Reform.” In Prospects for Social Security Reform, editado por Olivia S. Mitchell, Robert J. Myers, e Howard Young, 37–59. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press. https://pensionresearchcouncil.wharton.upenn.edu/publications/books/prospects-for-social-security-reform/.
Ranis, Gustav, e John C. H. Fei. 1961. “A Theory of Economic Development.” The American Economic Review LI: 533–65. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1812785.
Ravenstein, Ernst Georg. 1889. “The Laws of Migration.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 52: 241–305.
Sabates-Wheeler, Rachel, e Johannes Koettl. 2010. “Social Protection for Migrants: The Challenges of Delivery in the Context of Changing Migration Flows.” International Social Security Review 63, no.3–4: 115–44. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-246X.2010.01372.x.
Santos, Mauro Augusto dos, Alisson Flávio Barbieri, José Alberto Magno de Carvalho, e Carla Jorge Machado. 2010. “Migração: Uma Revisão Sobre Algumas Das Principais Teorias.” Textos Para Discussão 398. Belo Horizonte. https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/6314064.pdf.
Settergren, Ole, e Boguslaw D. Mikula. 2005. “The Rate of Return of Pay-as-You-Go Pension Systems: A More Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest.” Journal of Pension Economics and Finance 4, no.2: 115–38. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1474747205002064.
Sevak, Purvi, e Lucie Schmidt. 2014. “Immigrants and Retirement Resources.” Social Security Bulletin 74, no.1: 27–45. https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v74n1/v74n1p27.html.
Sjaastad, Larry A. 1962. “The Costs and Returns of Human Migration.” Journal of Political Economy 70, no.5: 80–93. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1829105%0A.
Skeldon, Ronald. 2012. “Migration Transitions Revisited: Their Continued Relevance for The Development of Migration Theory.” Population, Space and Place 18, no.2: 154–66. https://doi.org/10.1002/psp.667.
Social Security Administration (SSA) e International Social Security Association (ISSA). 2016. “Social Security Programs Throughout the World: Europe, 2016.” Washington, D.C. http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/progdesc/ssptw/2012-2013/asia/qatar.html.
Tamagno, Edward. 1994. “Coordination of Social Security Programmes of Developed and Developing Countries.” International Social Security Review 47, no.1: 3–13. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-246X.1994.tb01097.x.
Taylor, J. E. 1986. “Differential Migration,Networks, Information and Risks.” In Research in Human Capital and Development, editado por Oded Stark, 147–71. Greenwich, CT.: JAI Press.
Todaro, Michael P. 1969. “A Model of Labor Migration and Urban Unemployment in Less Developed Countries.” The American Economic Review 59, no.1: 138–49. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1811100.
United Nations. 2017. “The World Counted 258 Million International Migrants in 2017, Representing 3.4 per Cent of Global Population.” Popfacts December, no. 5: 1–4. http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/publications/populationfacts/docs/MigrationPopFacts20175.pdf.
Whiteford, Peter. 1995. “The Use of Replacement Rates in International Comparisons of Benefit Systems.” International Social Security Review 48, no.2: 3–30. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-246X.1995.tb00427.x.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2021 Giselle Mazzoto de Carvalho, Luís Eduardo Afonso
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
By submitting an article, the author authorizes its publication and attests that it has not been submitted to any other journal. The original article is considered final. Articles selected for publication are proofread for grammatical and orthographic errors. The journal does not pay rights for published articles. The Institute of Economic Research from the School of Economics, Business and Accounting of the University of São Paulo (Instituto de Pesquisas Econômicas da Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade da Universidade de São Paulo) owns the journal's copyright.
Funding data
-
Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico
Grant numbers 304625/2019-1
