Renegociação da dívida externa: uma avaliação do impacto sobre a capacidade de crescimento da economia brasileira

Abstract

Since the debt crisis exploded in 1982, the conventional approach adopted to deal with that problem has not been well-succeeded. On the other hand, the moratorium proclaimed by countries like Brazil and Peru was a deceptive alternative. Recently, a third approach has been developed including debt reduction. This article discusses the advantages of this proposal. Three simple models are developed, representing confrontation, muddling through, and negotiated reduction of debt. The basic conclusion is that benefitial effects of debt reduction are greatly overestimated : even with the very optimistic assumption that Brazil is able to get a 50% relief on registered debt of comercial banks. GDP average growth rates in the 1990's would increase less than 0,5%.