Fatores determinantes e evolução da economia submersa no Brasil

Abstract

The present study aims to determine the main economic factors acting as the driving force of the Brazilian informal economic activity and analyze its evolution during the period 1994-1999. To this end, the MIMIC (multiple indexes multiple indirect causes) model developed by Joreskog e Goldberger (1975) is estimated using the Joreskog e Sorbon (1993)' s LISREL software. The econometric results suggest that, first, the tax burden, the degree of economic activity regulation as well as the unemployment rate are the strongest factors acting as the driving force behind the informal activity in the country and, second, that the informal economic activity index estimated by the model presents a clear increase along the considered period of study.