Política monetária e ciclos regionais no Brasil: uma investigação das condições para uma área monetária ótima
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1590/S0101-41612006000200004Keywords:
vector autoregression, unobsorved components, optimal currency areaAbstract
The objective of this paper is to investigate the influence of the monetary policy and other shocks on the gross domestic product of each one of the Brazilian regions. The methodology is a combination of non-observed components and auto-regressive techniques (VAR). Common and specific shocks and common and specific effects of these shocks had been identified. The results indicate that Brazilian regions have symmetric responses to the common shocks but the most important shocks are the idiosyncratic ones.Downloads
References
Ahmed, H.; Miller, S. Monetary and exchange rate policy in multisectoral economies.
Journal of Economics and Business, 49, p. 321-334, 1997.
Amado, A. Disparate regional development in Brazil: a monetary production approach.
Aldershot: Ashgate, 1997. 360p.
Azzoni, C. R.; Barossi-Filho, M. A time series analysis of regional income convergence in Brazil. Anais do XXX Encontro Nacional da ANPEC, Nova Friburgo-RJ, 2002.
Ball, L.; Romer, D. Real rigidities and the non-neutrality of money. Review of Economic
Studies, 57, p. 183-203, April 1990.
Beare, J. B. A monetarist model of regional business. Journal of Regional Science, v. 16, n. 1, p. 57-63, 1976.
Carlino, G.; DeFina, R. The differential effects of monetary policy: evidence from the U.S. states and regions. Journal of Regional Science 39, 1999.
Carlino, G.; Sill, K. Regional income fluctuations: common trends and common cycles. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Working Paper 00-8, August 2000.
Castro, Cláudio Barra de. Moeda e espaço: os casos das áreas metropolitanas de São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte, Curitiba, Salvador e suas áreas de polarização. 2002. Dissertação (Mestrado), CEDEPLAR-UFMG, Belo Horizonte.
Chick, V. Some scenarios for money in banking in the EC and their regional implications.
In: Rima, I. H. (ed.), The political economy of global restructuring: economic
organization as production. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 1993, v. 2: Trade and finance, p. 190-200.
Christiano, L. J.; Eichenbaum, M.; Evans, C. L. Identification and the effects of monetary policy shocks. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Working Paper, n. 94-7, 1994.
D'Amico, N.; Parigi, G.; Trifilidis, M. I tassi d`ınteresse e la rischiosita degli impieghi
bancari. In: BANCA D'ITALIA (ed), II sistema finnaziario nel mezzogiorno, special
issue of the Contributi all`analisi economica. Rome: Banca d'Italia, 1990, p. 305-47.
Dow, S. C. The regional composition of the bank multipler process. Scottish Journal
of Political Economy, v. 29, n.1, p. 22-44, 1982.
Dow, S. C. Money and regional development. Studies in Political Economiy, v. 23, n. 2,
p. 73-94, 1987.
Dow, S. C. Financial markets and regional economic development: the Canadian experience.
Aldershot: Averbury, 1990.
Dow, S. C. The regional financial sector: a Scottish case study. Regional Studies, v. 26, n. 7, p. 619-631, 1992.
Dow, S. C.; Rodriguez-Fuentes, C. J. Regional finance: a survey. Regional Studies, v. 31, n. 9, p. 903-20, 1997.
Duca, J.; Van Hoose, D. Optimal monetary policy in a multisector economy with an economywide money market. Journal of Economics and Business, 42, p. 253-263, 1990.
Faini, R.; Galli, G.; Giannini, C. Finance and development: the case of southern
Italy. In: Giovannini, A. (ed.), Finance and development: issues and experience. Cambridge: Cambridge University, 1993, p. 158-213.
Hamilton, J. Time series analysis. Princeton University Press, 1994.
Hutchinson, R. W.; McKillop, D. G. Regional financial sector models: an application
to the Northern Ireland financial sector. Regional Studies, v. 24, n. 5, p.
-31, 1991a.
Hutchinson, R. W.; McKillop, D. G. Financial intermediaries and financial markets: a United Kingdom regional perspective. Regional Studies, v. 25, n. 6, p. 543-54, December 1991.
Kouparitsas, M. Is the United States an optimum currency area? An empirical analysis
of regional business cycles. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Working Paper 2001-22, 2001.
Kozlowski, P. J. Integrating money into regional models of leading indicators. Review
of Regional Studies, v. 21, n. 3, p. 235-48, 1991.
Loo, C. M.; Lastrapes, W. D. Identifying the effects of money supply shocks on industry-level output. Journal of Macroeconomics, v. 20, n. 3, p. 431-49, 1988.
Mankiw, G. Small menu costs and large business cycle: a macroeconomic model of monopoly. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 100, p. 529-37, May 1985.
Mankiw, G.; Blinder, A. Aggregation and stabilization policy in a multicontract economy. Journal of Monetary Economics, v. 13, n. 1, p. 67-86, January 1984.
Moore, C. L.; Hill, J. M. Interregional arbitrage and the supply of loanable funds. Journal of Regional Science, v. 22, n. 4, p. 499-512, 1982.
Moore, C. L.; Karaska, G. J.; Hill, J. M. The impact of the banking system on regional analyses. Regional Studies, v. 19, n. 1, p. 29-35, Feb. 1985.
Mundell, R. A. A theory of optimum currency areas. American Economic Review, v. 51, p. 657-665, 1961.
Roberts, R. B.; Fishkind, H. H. The role of monetary forces in regional economic activity: an econometric simulation analisys. Journal of Regional Science, v. 19, n. 1, p. 15-29, Feb. 1979.
Rotemberg, J.; Woodford, M. An optimization-based econometric framework for the evaluation of monetary policy. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, p. 297-346, 1997.
Sims, C. Stickiness. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, v. 49, n. 1,
p. 317-356, December 1998.
Watson, M. W.; Engle, R. F. Alternative algorithms for the estimation of dynamic
factor, MIMIC and varying coefficient models. Journal of Econometrics, v. 23, p. 385-400, 1983.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2006 Vladimir Kühl Teles, Mauro Costa Miranda
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
By submitting an article, the author authorizes its publication and attests that it has not been submitted to any other journal. The original article is considered final. Articles selected for publication are proofread for grammatical and orthographic errors. The journal does not pay rights for published articles. The Institute of Economic Research from the School of Economics, Business and Accounting of the University of São Paulo (Instituto de Pesquisas Econômicas da Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade da Universidade de São Paulo) owns the journal's copyright.
