Tax reform: the macroeconomics and setorial effects of PEC 233/2008
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1590/S0101-41612011000200011Keywords:
tax reform, efficiency, simplification, general equilibrium, welfareAbstract
In spite of a disappointed historical, the Brazilian government sent a new tax reform proposal to the National Congress, PEC 233/2008. The proposals unify some of the federal consumption taxes into a federal VAT, simplifies ICMS legislation, reduce investment and social securities rates and rates applied to essential goods. In order to analyze this change, it was constructed a general equilibrium model with 55 firms of the economy. The results suggest a moderate expansion of aggregate output, consumption, employment and investment with a little loss in revenues and a gain in welfare. Also, we have substantial changes in sectorial output, with a tendency of increasing the share of farm and industrial sectors in detriment of services.
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BRASIL, Ministério da Fazenda. Cartilha Reforma Tributária. Disponível em http://www.fazenda.gov.br/portugues/documentos/2008/fevereiro/Cartilha-Reforma-Tributaria.pdf/
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INSTITUTO BRASILEIRO DE GEOGRAFIA E ESTATÍSTICA (IBGE). Sistema de Contas Nacionais 2004 - 2005. Rio de Janeiro, 2007.
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ROTEMBERG, J.; WOODFORD, M. Dynamic general equilibrium models with imperfectly competitive product markets. In Frontiers of Business Cycle Research. ed. Thomas F. Cooley, p. 243-293, Princeton University Press, 1995.
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