Prize for information: an empirical investigation of the microstructure stock market of Brazil

Authors

  • Fábio Massaúd Caetano Universidade Federal de Pelotas
  • Nelson Seixas dos Santos Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
  • Gilberto de Oliveira Kloeckner Faculdade São Francisco de Assis

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-416145366fng

Keywords:

Probability of informed negotiation, Markov-switching models, Portfolios selection, Tick-test algorithm

Abstract

This article makes use of tick-by-tick data to estimate the probability of informed trading (PIN) to IBRX stocks. We add PIN in Fama French (1993) method to separate portfolios and explain their returns. Our evidence points out we may find some portfolios, which have statistically higher return and lower risk in a Markov-switching regression. The results demonstrate PIN is an important factor in explaining portfolio returns.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

BAGEHOT, W. The only game in town. Financial Analysts Journal, v. 27, p. 12–14, 1971.

BANZ, R. The Relationship between Return and Market Value of Common Stocks. Journal of Financial Economics, v. 9, n. 1, p. 3-18, 1981.

BARBEDO, C.; SILVA, E.; LEAL, R. Probabilidade de informação privilegiada no mercado de ações, liquidez intra-diária e níveis de governança corporativa. Revista Brasileira de Economia, v. 63, n.1, p. 51-62, jan., 2009.

BASU, S. Investment Performance on Common Stocks in Relation to Their Price/Earnings Ratio: A Test of the Efficient Market Hypothesis. The Journal of Finance, v. 32, n. 3, p. 663-682, 1977.

BLACK, F.; JENSEN, M. C.; SCHOLES, M. The Capital Asset Pricing Model: Some Empirical Testes.

In M.C. Jensen (org.). Studies in the Theory of Capital Markets. New York: Praeger, 1972.

COGGI, P.; MANESCU, B. A multifactor model of stock returns with endogenous regime switching.

Jan, 2004. Disponível em: < http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=526064> .

Acesso em 05 ago. 2011.

COPELAND, L.; WONG, W.; ZENG, Y. Information-based trade in Shanghai stock market. Global

Finance Journal, v. 20, n. 2, p. 180-190, jun., 2009.

DUARTE, J.; YOUNG L. Why is PIN priced? Journal of Financial Economics, v. 91, n. 2, p. 119-138,

fev., 2009.

EASLEY D.; KIEFER, N.; O’HARA, M.; PAPERMAN, J. Liquidity, information, and infrequently

traded stocks, Journal of Finance, v. 51, n. 4, p. 1405–1436, set., 1996.

EASLEY, D.; HVIDKJAER, S.; O’HARA, M. Factoring information into returns, Journal of Financial

Quantitative Analysis, v.45, n. 2, p. 293-309, fev., 2010.

EASLEY, D.; HVIDKJAER, S.; O’HARA, M. Is information risk a determinant of asset returns? Journal of Finance, v. 57, n. 5, p. 2185–2222, out., 2002.

EASLEY, D.; O’HARA, M. Information and the cost of capital. Journal of Finance, v. 59, n. 4, p.

–1583, ago., 2004.

EASLEY, D.; O’HARA, M. Price, trade size, and information in securities markets. Journal of Financial Economics, v. 19, n. 1, p. 69–90, set., 1987.

EASLEY, D; KIEFER, N.; O’HARA, M. One day in the life of a very common stock, Review of Financial

Studies, v. 10, n. 3, p. 805-835, 1997.

FAMA, E.; MACBETH, J. Risk, return and equilibrium: empirical tests. Journal of Political Economy, n. 81, n. 3, p. 607−636, jun., 1973.

FAMA, F.; FRENCH, K. Common risk factors in the returns on stock and bonds. Journal of Financial Economics, v. 33, n. 1, p. 3-56, fev., 1993.

FAMA, F.; FRENCH, K. The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns. Journal of Finance, v. 47, n.

, p. 427–465, jun., 1992.

HAMILTON, J. A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle, Econometrica, v. 57, n. 2, p. 357-384, mar., 1989.

KROLZIG, H-M, Markov-Switching vector autoregression: modeling, statistical inference and application to business cycle analysis (lectures notes in economics and mathematical systems). New York: Springer, 1997, 357p.

KYLE, A. S. Continuous auctions and insider trading, Econometrica, v. 53, n. 6, p. 1315–1335, nov., 1985.

LEE, C.; READY, J. Inferring trade direction from intraday data. Journal of Finance, v. 46, n. 2, p.

–746, jun. 1991.

LINTNER, J. The Valuation of Risk Assets and the Selection of Risk Investments in Stocks Portfolios and Capital Budgets. The Review of Economics and Statistics, v. 47, p. 13-37, feb., 1965.

MOSSIN, J. Equilibrium in a Capital Asset Market. Econometrica, v. 34, p. 768-783, oct., 1966.

ROSENBERG, B.; REID, K.; LANSTEIN, R. Persuasive Evidence of Market Inefficiency. Journal of

Portfolio Management, v. 11, n. 2, p. 9-17, 1985.

ROSS, S.A. The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing. Journal of Economic Theory, 13, pp. 341–360, 1976.

ROSS, Stephen A. A simple approach to the valuation of risky streams. Journal of Business, p. 453-475, 1978.

SHARPE, W. F. Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions of Risk. The Journal of Finance, v. 19, p. 425-442, sept., 1964.

SILVA, E. Dois ensaios sobre microestrutura de Mercado e probabilidade de informação privilegiada no mercado de ações brasileiro. 2009. Tese (Doutorado em Administração) – Programa de Pós-Graduação em Administração, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, 2009.

Published

30-09-2015

Issue

Section

Articles

How to Cite

Caetano, F. M., dos Santos, N. S., & Kloeckner, G. de O. (2015). Prize for information: an empirical investigation of the microstructure stock market of Brazil. Estudos Econômicos (São Paulo), 45(3), 625-650. https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-416145366fng