Robustez de regressões de crescimento frente à incerteza sobre a especificação do modelo: quão robustos são os regressores para o caso brasileiro?
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-416145497cpfKeywords:
Growth regressions, Model averaging, Jackknife Model AveragingAbstract
Although there is a vast literature that seeks to identify robust regressors able to influence
economic growth at the international level, this issue still needs research that have
satisfactory results for the Brazilian case. This article aims to contribute to the identification
of robust variables that influence the Brazilian economic growth. The Resende
and Figueiredo (2010) dataset is reviewed and we seek to circumvent the problem of
uncertainty about the model specification. For this purpose, a Frequentist Model Averaging
technique proposed in Hansen and Racine (2012) is used. This method is known by Jackknife Model Averaging and it is not as restrictive as the Extreme Bound Analysis
and not as permissive as the approach of Sala-i-Martin (1997). The results suggest
that, among the 22 investigated covariates, only the overall tax burden would have
significant influence on growth. In general, our results remain indicating caution when
working with growth regressions that use state data. Moreover, the work motivates
further studies and draws attention to the importance of resuming this line of research.
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