Impact of macroeconomic conditions on presidential approval rating
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1590/1980-53575541mmmrKeywords:
Politics, Presidential approval, Macroeconomics, Instrumental variables, Two stage least squaresAbstract
This paper investigates the relationship between macroeconomic indicators and presidential approval ratings in Brazil spanning from 1996 to 2023. Employing the Two Stage Least Squares technique of instrumental variables estimation to mitigate endogeneity issues within domestic macroeconomic indicators, the study explores the impact of the output gap, food inflation, real exchange rate and terms of trade on presidential approval. Controlling for each president’s term and major political developments in the country, the analysis reveals statistically significant relationships between these macroeconomic factors and presidential approval, underscoring the profound link between the economy and the success of an incumbent administration.
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Copyright (c) 2025 Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos, Matheus Rodrigues
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Atualizado em 14/08/2025