Factors related to secondary school students’ expectations of completing university studies in Argentina and Chile
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1590/S1678-4634202652294997enPalavras-chave:
Expectativas educacionais, Educação superior, Fatores associados, Argentina, ChileResumo
Este artigo usa microdados do Programa de avaliação PISA 2022 para estudar fatores relacionados às expectativas dos estudantes do ensino médio de concluir os estudos universitários na Argentina e no Chile. Estimamos um modelo logit sobre a probabilidade de esperar concluir estudos universitários em cada país. Os resultados mostram que, apesar das diferenças entre os dois sistemas educacionais, fatores como o gênero, o nível socioeconômico do aluno, a educação dos pais, o desempenho acadêmico do aluno e o tipo de centro que ele frequenta (público ou privado) são muito importantes e influenciam as expectativas na mesma direção. Entretanto, há diferenças significativas na magnitude dos efeitos de algumas variáveis nos países analisados. Em particular, as expectativas dos estudantes de classe média e alta em relação às da classe baixa são maiores na Argentina do que no Chile. Os resultados podem ser uma consequência, por um lado, de que os estudantes do ensino secundário de baixa renda na Argentina têm chances reduzidas de se formar do que os estudantes do ensino secundário de baixa renda no Chile. Por outro lado, apesar das barreiras de acesso e financeiras presentes no ensino superior chileno, as chances de graduação são maiores do que na Argentina. Note-se que, embora o acesso ao ensino superior público seja aberto e gratuito na Argentina, no Chile foi introduzida uma política de ensino gratuito para grupos de baixa renda, e algumas instituições do setor privado têm barreiras de entrada mais baixas do que o grupo mais seletivo de instituições públicas e privadas.
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