Inflation targeting in an open financially integrated emerging economy: the case of Brazil

Authors

  • Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos Universidade de Cornell

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1590/S0101-41612004000200002

Keywords:

pass-through, floating exchange rate, Taylor rule

Abstract

This paper conducts simulations of the augmented Taylor rule (with an added exchange rate term). It has also been made to analyze the response from external shocks in a simple Inflation Targeting model with trade balance equations. In contrast to Ball (2000), when the exchange rate is included in the Taylor rule, output volatility increases after a negative shock to the capital inflow. The paper also studies the pass-through from the exchange rate devaluation to inflation considering the recent change in the foreign exchange regime in Brazil. Econometric estimations were performed using the specifications of the pass-through suggested by Goldfajn and Werlang (2000).

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

BALL, Laurence. Policy rules and external shocks. NBER Working Paper Series 7910, Cambridge Ma, 2000.

BOGDANSKI, Joel; TOMBINI, Alexandre; WERLANG, Sergio R. C. Implementing inflationtargeting in Brazil. Banco Central do Brasil Working Paper Series n. 1, Brasília,

CALVO; REINHART. Fear of floating. University of Maryland, 2000. Mimeografado.

GOLDFAJN, Ilan; OLIVARES, Gino. Can flexible exchange rates still “work” in financially open economies. G-24 Discussion Paper N. 8, 2001.

GOLDFAJN, Ilan; WERLANG, Sergio R.C. The pass-through from depreciation to inflation: a panel study. Banco Central do Brasil Working Paper Series n. 5, Brasília, 2000.

HAUSSMANN, Ricardo; PANIZZA, Ugo; STEIN Ernesto. Why do countries float the way they float. Working Paper n. 418, Inter-American Development Bank, 1999.

MISHKIN, Frederic. Inflation targeting in emerging market countries. NBER Working Paper Series 7618, Cambridge Ma, 2000.

MUINHOS, Marcelo; FREITAS, Paulo; ARAÚJO, Fabio. Uncovered interest parity with fundamentals: a Brazilian exchange rate forecast model. Banco Central do Brasil Working Paper Series n. 19, Brasília, 2000.

RODRICK, Dani. Exchange rate regimes and institutional arrangements in the shadow of capital flows. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2000. Mimeografado.

Downloads

Published

01-06-2004

Issue

Section

Não definida

How to Cite

Muinhos, M. K. (2004). Inflation targeting in an open financially integrated emerging economy: the case of Brazil . Estudos Econômicos (São Paulo), 34(2), 269-296. https://doi.org/10.1590/S0101-41612004000200002