Biogeographic regionalization of human infectious diseases in the Parana State
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11606/eISSN.2236-2878.rdg.2025.215597Keywords:
Beta-diversity, Clustering, Pathogeography, TurnoverAbstract
Biogeographic regionalization represents abstractions of the organization of life on Earth, and it can provide a large-scaled framework for health management and planning. We aimed at determining a biogeographic regionalization for human infectious diseases in the Parana State, Brazil, and at investigating non-mutually exclusive hypotheses predicting the observed regions. Based on the spatial distributions of 11 infectious diseases with mandatory notification (SINAN database, 2007 to 2020, n=1,012), we identified regions through a clustering procedure based on beta-diversity turnover. The analysis was repeated 1000 times by randomly shuffling the rows (0.25° cells) in the original matrix. We evaluated the relative importance of variables using multinomial logistic regression models: contemporary climate (temperature and precipitation), human activity (population density and geographic accessibility), land cover (5 classes), and the full model (all variables). The three-cluster solution was the most independent and informative solution. Clusters occurred in the northern, northwestern, and southern portion of the State. The best model for explaining the regionalization was the full model, supporting the ‘complex association’ hypothesis. Our findings indicate that there is a discernible pattern in the turnover of disease in the Parana State, and this phenomenon was associated with an intricate interplay between contemporary climate, population activity, and land cover. We suggested that the regionalization could be adopted as a statewide framework for geographic vaccine allocation.
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